EIA 4

The following are my notes from the EIA 4th report

2030 is a potentially realistic projection for cost effective light duty FCV’s, however the next twenty five or so years requires extensive investment measures.

Long-term state and federal policies are required

High capital costs of PEM fuel cell is one challenge

Other challenges include: developing on board hydrogen storage systems, integrating the PEM fuel cell into an LDV motor and building an effective and economical dispensing network

There is a divide in market investing and federal funds in general as some funding is going towards hydrogen fuel cell technologies while others are preoccupied with developing and improving standard technologies in order to comply with the 2020 CAFÉ standards of 35 miles per gallon

Successful R&D and commercialization of an advanced battery technology that achieves acceptable safety, performance, durability, and costs could support all three advanced automotive technologies—for all-electric PHEVs, all-electric FCVs, and hybrid FCVs.

According to EERE,⁸⁰ the following hydrogen-related goals must be achieved if FCVs are to attain large-scale dominance in the LDV market:

• The delivered, untaxed, cost of hydrogen, including production, transportation, and distribution, must decline to between $2 and $3 per gallon gasoline equivalent, or approximately $2 to $3 per kilogram of hydrogen, because 1 kilogram of hydrogen contains about the same energy as a gallon of gasoline, and $1 per kilogram is about $8.77 per million Btu,⁸¹ if crude oil prices are sustained at about $90 per barrel in real 2006 dollars. Higher crude oil prices would allow higher-cost hydrogen to pass the economic test.

• Federal and State policies must be instituted to facilitate the construction of all phases of a hydrogen production, transmission, distribution, and dispensing infrastructure. The policies may have to include financial incentives and guarantees that currently are unspecified, as well as safety regulations for the transportation of hydrogen through tunnels and on bridges.

• Fuel cell and vehicle manufacturers must be convinced that the Federal and State governments will provide a stable and supportive set of policies that encourage their investments in hydrogen FCVs for at least 10 years, according to an ORNL report.⁸²

• Hydrogen storage costs for fuel cells must fall to about $2 per kilowatt from their currently estimated price of about $8 per kilowatt for the 5,000 psi system.⁸³

• The total cost of all the fuel cell components, including fuel stacks, catalyst, and balance of system, must fall to $30 per kilowatt,⁸⁴ as compared with current cost estimates of $3,625 to $4,500 per kilowatt for production in small numbers.

• Ideally, the first FCV markets must be developed in areas with high population densities that already have excess capacity at hydrogen production facilities, in order to encourage early adoption, provide consumer familiarity, and accelerate fuel cell cost reductions based on learning by the automobile manufactures.

Each of these major goals and associated challenges are discussed below. Additional technical and economic feasibility items may also require resolutio

Hydrogen Production, Hyrdrogen Sytorage, Hydrogen Infastrucure

Development and Deployment of a HYRDO infrastructure requires both long term developments of building an extensive distribution network via pipelines similar ot the natural gas pipelines already in existence, and developing local centralized facilites that use natural gas as feedstock

Neither will be accomplished based on investor interest alone and require extensive federal incentives

Furthermore the costs of the various storage and transmission can vary greatly and therefore as the hydrogen economy develops these challenges of distribution will come down to cost effectiveness, practicality, and safety

Currently it has been beneficial to target highly populated areas, expand on existing infrastructures and facilities near by for hydrogen production and consequently provide the area with the alternative

As mentioned before, LDV costs need to drop significantly before any large-scale market penetration

This will require PEM fuel cell costs to reduce to at least 30$ per kilowatt

Hydrogen Fuel Cell

Bringing the research full circle through an analysis of the intensive report produced in 2008 by the EIA on hydrgen fuel cell and its reciprocal use and implementation in our economy
here is the link for chapter two which i have just read and taken comprehensive notes on which we will later compile into our paper
chapter one was merely an introduction however i will also post a basic page provided by the EIA on Hydrogen Fuel Cell without an economic analysis

Chapter 2 of this report systematically reviews the components of existing industrial hydrogen production, capacity, and use, as well as those elements associated with the contemplated future hydrogen economy. The review proceeds from sources of supply and production technologies through distribution and storage issues, and then to dispensing and end uses. End-use issues are related to HICEs and FCVs as well as stationary applications of hydrogen fuel cells.

· Supply-Production-Distrbution-Dispensing and End use

· # of potential feedstock and production pathways is much larger than depicted in 2.1 e.g. commited solar supplies for electrical provision or wind powered

· Hydrogen is an energy carrier not primary energy resource- similar to electricity

· Cellulosic biomass can also produce as well as natural gas, coal, oril and so forth

· 10 quadrillion BTU per year in 2030 of estimated biomass supply

· ^^polysys comp model

· Another source is simply electrolysis of water – NASA has used such however its rather expensive compared to alternatives and would require diverting energy use from the 49% of electric generation vis a vis coal burning plants

· Constructing a renewable capacity for exclusive purpose of hydrogen from electrolysis is undesirable from investment perspectives because ti would require the cost of electricity to be less than the wholesale price at which could be sold to the grid

· Standalone wind systems in production face this challenge and thus seem economically unfeasible

· Direct biomass gastircation would prove better economically if engineering challenges of raising max capacity to atleast 80% were overcome

· Hydrogen production would require reforming natural gas and hydrogen byproducts of petroleum processing

· Nuclear is a possibility that hasn’t fully been explored

· Hydrogen could be produced as a byproduct o some other exisiting industrial process

· ^^^clearly production could be accomdated

· Reforming- highly favorable because it wouldn’t require much infastructe change and industry already ecists for natural gas feedstock

· Partial Oxidation- typically produces at faster rate than the later but less from the same qunaityt moreover, fluxating natural gas prices are a detriment however

· Electrolysis- cost prohibitice and net energy losss associated with production

· Advanced techonoligies e.g. thermochemical reactions, nuclear fission, photosynthesis, fermentation and so forth however nothing is guaranteed on this new frontier

· ECONOMICS of production depends upon the underlying efficiency of technology employed, current state of industrial development, scale of plant, annual utilization and cost of its feed back, see chart 2.1 for reference

· We need investors to cover the plant capital costs in order to establish a dependeable production method less sensitive to production costs

· Smaller plants that would require less infrastructure tend to have higher feedstock and utility costs, lower effiences, and higher operation and maintence costs

· HYDROGEN TRANSMISSION and DISTRI

· Currently 20% of hydrogen production could be transported without modifying the 180,000 mile natural gas pipeline infrastructure

· Amount of quantity production will affect how we transport- e.g. midsized over the road and via rail cars- generally longer distances- larger quantities via pipes over shorter distances

· Hydrogen is highly volatile and safety is a necessary consideration in facilitating transport

· 99%^ of all hydrogen gas is transported via compressed gas in pipelies

· However, integrating transport into the already established natural gas pipelines could facilitate the shift although those are all headed toward homes and require a shift in processing through technology in home heating and so forth

· How this system will evolve is unknown and its costs cannot be estimated within reason because of this

· Quantities and distance determine cost of distribution and modes of transport also liquid versus gaseous stae

· One of the greatest challenges in developing a hydrogen economy is efficient storage

· **various storage methods** dk if its necessary though

· Hydrogen dispensing and hydrogen highway intiatives- see chart 2.3 California is winning the race

· Hydrogen end use applications currently

· Petroleum refining—to remove sulfur from crude oil as well as to convert heavy crude oil to lighter products

· Chemical processing—to manufacture ammonia, methanol, chlorine, caustic soda, and hydrogenated non-edible oils for soaps, insulation, plastics, ointments, and other chemicals

· Pharmaceuticals—to produce sorbitol, which is used in cosmetics, adhesives, surfactants, and vitamins

· Metal production and fabrication—to create a protective atmosphere in high-temperature operations, such as stainless steel manufacturing

· Food processing—to hydrogenate oils, such as soybean, fish, cottonseed, and corn oil

· Laboratory research—to conduct research and experimentation

· Electronics—to create a special atmosphere for the production of semiconductor circuits

· Glass manufacturing—to create a protective atmosphere for float glass production

· Power generation—to cool turbo-generators and to protect piping in nuclear reactors.

· Transportation end uses are mainly in the conceptual stage however LDV’s conversion could conserve and cut down on import enormously

· HICE’s VERSUS FCV’s

· HICE- modified mass produced vehicle designed, considerably lower cost and could be deployed much sooner, development of this vehicle type could facilitate massive infrastructure change

· 1000$ for on board electrolyzer and for has demonstrated the ability to optimize the combustion of hydrogen fuel given the design of the vehicle. These HICE’s could also include for a relatively low cost LDV onboard storage with equally effeicient fuel standards

· EV’s and PHEVS

· Major automakers hold the EV as a legitimate immediate emission free replacement however long range capabilities are still the challenge

· FCVS – instiallation of R and D fuel cells to work as an onboard electricity generaor storage system replacement

· Constant source of necessary chemicals for battery like reaction is the jist

· However major automotive companies eg Chrysler and GM require billion dollar expenditures in order to develop the system

· Current impediments to the sytem is costm fuel cell durability, and expanding operational temp range of cell – also necessary minimum range for consumers

· The fuel cell itself which last half as long as an internal combustion engine – where do the batteries go? Is it safe to throw them away- the study doesn’t say

· Stationary power systems are now in use and demonstrate the burgeoning industry