EIA 3

The notes for the EIA hydrogen third report are below and you can access the link accordingly


I have one more report to analyze hopefully I can get that done and posted before class tomorrow, otherwise that about sums up stuff on my end and it is now time to arrange a brief meeting where we discuss how we are going to present the information and deadlines all that jazz

Chapter 3 provides quantitative estimates of energy and CO2 emission impacts of FCVs, based on different market penetration scenarios, hydrogen production technologies (including the manner in which they are deployed from distributed to centralized production), and hydrogen vehicle efficiency (fuel economy). The results are compared with results for an alternative technology, PHEVs. The analysis provides some observations and insights into the potential impacts of the large-scale introduction of hydrogen vehicles.

· Emission projections are subject to change due to various scenarios considered in this report

· However, the projections suppose three scenarios of change that could took place as follows

· One- considered least aggressive market strategy with development not really beginning until 2015 and increases slowly for a significant period and then accompanied by state and federal incentives increases with rapid technology and consequently infrastructure change with roughly 45% of energy intensive markets and fuels adapted by 2045

· Two- more aggressive, charting a sales path of faster consumption of these products and consequently a faster realization of their benefits to the environment, characterized by a steady increase at first and then a more rapid one until 2050 when 90% of all cars sold are FCV’s

· Three- most aggressive strategy, rapidly developed, assumes all costs goals are met in infrastructure is developed in Tandem, which after considerable advancements and economic investments spikes upward after 2024 and has reached a peak of almost 100% FCV sales by 2038

· In order to have a more comprehensive projection the study also includes a number of sceanrios in which the fuel finds it way into the economy

· Distributed natural gas SMR, centralized natural gas SMR, centralized coal gasificaton with CCS, centralized biomass gasification, and centralized nuclear electrolysis HTE of water- the pathways listed are only meant to provide prospective gauges for different emission levels that could result from the different choices and are not necessarily reflective of what will be or is the most economically effective and therefore are worth mentioning and referencing the accompanying charts but are not crucial to our analysis.

· SLOW STOCK TURNOVER- benefits of market penetration will be not be fully realized until a decade after significant market penetration and this lapse between periods poses the risky transition period for investors and consumers from a gasoline centric market to a hydrogen fueled market and this period demonstrates the greatest challenge to integration.

· The emissions do not include the CO2 emissions associated with the full life cycle of the fuel and therefore are considered in terms of direct energy use scenarios given that projections about the technology needed to bring us the fuel cannot with any accuracy be predicted.

· The study then explores the different scenarios in context to LDV direct energy use impacts and also the comparative case for a point of reference of the impacts of plug in hybrid. See accompanying graphs and charts in the link for a more colorful representation

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· The scenarios, as one might expect produced hugely different results in terms of fuel emissions and therefore the key findings of this analysis are summed up as follows

· It is highly unlikely given the technological and infrastructure challenges that hydrogen FCV will have a significant impact on LDV energy use and CO2 emissions by 2030

· However depending on market penetration and improvements in the fuel economy by 2050, the reduction of petroleum demand could range anywhere from 37.1 % - 84.1%

· Also depending on the means of production, the full fuel cycle reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 could be as high as 63.8% to merely 2.0% in the various scenarios

· The fuel economy of FCVs and the electricity generation mix are the key determinants of relative emissions and outcomes

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