Final Paper-Peter Baumann-HEV and PHEV Vehicles

Environmental Economics

Alternative Fuels in Transportation

Peter Baumann

May 16, 2011

Hybrid and Hybrid/Electric Vehicles

This paper will focus on the economic and environmental feasibility and outlooks for Hybrid Vehicles and All Electric Vehicles on today’s global market. By examining current applications of hybrid and electric technology we will see that Hybrid technology coupled with Plug-In Electric innovation are the most suitable, realistic fuel technology alternative. While energy independence will assert itself in the near future we need to increase demand now for vehicles that rely less on petroleum products. Diversifying where we harness energy is a critical challenge in improving our future energy environment as well as our future energy economy, because electricity is capable of being produced through a variety of processes Hybrid and Electric vehicles are key to diversification. Hybrid technology is rapidly becoming the affordable, desirable option to conventional engine vehicles. This report will look at several published papers by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) as well as the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in hopes to clarify and explain the significant factors involved in the Hybrid Electric transportation industry and their implications and impacts on our current energy economy and environment.

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) are no longer a thing of the future and haven’t been for some time now. Toyota, Honda and even a proposed Ford hybrid have or will be available in the near future. As concerns about our global and local environment, energy security and economic stability have prompted a noticeable demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles within the current transportation framework HEVs have been garnering more and more attention. HEV vehicles combine aspects of both battery-powered electric vehicles and conventional combustion engine vehicles into one system. Typically a hybrid vehicle will utilize battery power to obtain a minimum state of charge that allows the engine to operate on a combination of battery power and internal combustion power that greatly reduces the amount of gasoline used in operation. When running on internal combustion, energy produced is used to recharge the electric battery. Some hybrid vehicles are capable of using this battery exclusively, however this is often only effective for short trips at low speeds as it relies completely on the power of the battery component.

How can hybrid vehicles sustain such efficient operation when compared to a conventional engine vehicle? According to the International Energy Agencies Hybrid Implementation Agreement the extra costs of an electric motor and battery in an HEV make sense because most internal combustion engines in conventional vehicles are largely inefficient on their own. Less than 20% of the energy produced after combustion is actually used to drive the wheels of the vehicle, most of what is produced is lost as heat. Conventional car engines are also typically more powerful than needed to keep the vehicle traveling at a specific speed for a specific amount of time. This is due solely to the fact that a large amount of power is needed for acceleration, when the car is not accelerating the engine is working far below its capacity and loses energy when idling, braking and driving at low speeds.[1] This problem is addressed in the fundamental design of Hybrid vehicles; because HEVs use an electric motor to assist in acceleration there is really no need for a large, inefficient internal combustion engine. The combustion engines found in most Hybrid vehicles are much, much smaller, and can be shut off and immediately started again if the vehicle needs to idle. When braking, the electric motor actually captures the energy generated from the motion of the car and feeds it back into the battery. When driving slowly HEVs will use only their electric motor, allowing them to operate at close to 90% efficiency, when higher speeds are required the combustion engine is utilized.

The future outlook for Hybrid vehicles is and has been very positive. A recent report conducted by the IEA predicts that by 2012 the global sales figure for hybrid vehicles may have tripled to 2.2 million units, while growth may inevitably by production volume and practical restrictions such as limited production volume of batteries[2]. Hybrid Vehicles can easily out perform conventional cars and often exceed customer expectations for efficiency, in countries with high gasoline prices, average savings are typically sufficient to pay back the extra price of the Hybrid in about 8 years. This period is expected to fall to 3-5 years as manufacturing volumes increase and as gasoline prices increase. Hybrid vehicles are also practical in a variety of applications including mid priced and high priced passenger vehicles, city buses and municipal vehicles and delivery trucks. While hybrid technologies have fewer advantages in large, heavy trucks that require constant speeds over long distances or smaller passenger cars that are already moderately fuel efficient and do not warrant the extra purchase cost.[3]

Hybrid vehicles are not a huge innovation technologically, rather a modification of existing technology to create something economically and environmentally viable. This offers advantages to the hybrid economic market being that most of the infrastructure for the development and manufacturing of these vehicles already exists. Changes can also be introduced gradually and technical problems and high warranty costs after a few years are reduced. With economic benefits also come environmental benefits. Reduction in air pollutants, noxious pollutants, and GHG emissions, hybrid vehicles will also be able to run on biodiesel, ethanol and natural gas making them potentially more environmentally friendly than some all-electric battery powered vehicles that rely primarily on electricity produced by coal-fired power plants. Improving upon battery technologies will become a key component in the future success of hybrid and electric vehicles in the near future. Engineering cars that pay for themselves within the shortest time frame but also keep their value in the long run will prove an attractive quality for hybrids in the future.

Future outlooks for hybrid technology reside at local, state and governmental levels. Improved vehicle technologies increase energy diversity and efficiency, environmental health and overall quality of life. With large quantities of hybrid vehicles available for purchase in today’s market is has become the responsibility of the consumer to make a responsible decision regarding their environment. Conventional vehicles impose upon society expensive externalities that are not paid for by the consumer who chose to buy the vehicle but by the government. The external costs associated with air pollution, imported petroleum and climate change effects should be more than enough justification for employing hybrid vehicles in governmental and municipal vehicle fleets. This measure can work to offset the impacts of preexisting conventional vehicles as well as create market volume capable of allowing manufacturers to reduce costs and create more affordable, attractive hybrid vehicles. Unlike costly prospective alternatives (solar, hydrogen, fuel cell) Hybrid technology is a reality, for this reason alone it is the best option for improving our energy situation in the short term as Hybrid vehicles can be easily altered to run on biofuels and natural gas. In the long term, or over the course of 20 years the costs of fuel cell technologies and long life batteries may become price competitive where they are not currently.[4]

Before moving on to All Electric and Plug-In vehicles it is important to understand some of the fundamentals behind battery-powered vehicles and the true implications of relying heavily on a battery for transportation. Currently there exist two viable battery options for use in hybrid and all electric vehicles. The first being a nickel metal hydride battery or (NiMH) and a lithium-ion battery alternative or (Li-Ion). Both batteries have their own specific strengths and weaknesses depending on their individual applications. NiMH batteries are cheaper to produce per kilowatt-hour, less labor intensive and have a proven safety record in vehicle applications already. NiMH batteries are cheap and safe but relatively heavy and have limited storage capability. Li-Ion batteries have a much larger storage capacity and are significantly lighter however they are not as safe and have limitations regarding overall lifetime and cycle life. While most manufacturers have made up their minds regarding battery usage based on specific desires, the general consensus is that Lithium Ion batteries hold more promise for future vehicle applications. As the industry progresses both economically and technologically we will see vast improvements to battery life, cycle, safety and capacity. Where battery technology today is a limiting factor in viability of Hybrid vehicles, manufacturers are fairly certain technological advances will allow for full lines of affordable efficient vehicles as the market opens up.

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles or “PHEVs” are like Hybrid Electric Vehicles in that they both have gains over conventional engine vehicles in fuel economy and environmental friendliness however PHEVs can also substitute electrical power for gasoline power while drawing electricity from a wall socket or fast charging high voltage socket. For this portion of the paper a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration titled “Economics of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles” released in 2009 will be referenced almost exclusively. PHEVs are often designed to travel in “all electric” mode depending on their intended design. Typically PHEVs will incorporate a number into the name of their design in order to specify the number of miles a vehicle can travel on a single charge, for example PHEV-10 can travel 10 miles when in all electric mode while PHEV-40 can travel 40 miles. PHEV-40 will have a much higher price tag and a much more expensive battery. As battery technology advances electric vehicles will see swift increases in market share as well as consumer affordability with decreases in price and cost of production. [5]

Aside from the environmental benefits offered by electric vehicles there are strong economic drivers as well. As the EIA’s report states, in general consumers will be more willing to purchase PHEVs rather than conventional gasoline powered vehicles if the economic benefits of doing so exceed the cost incurred. To make sense of this statement we must provide an understanding of the economic benefits and costs in relation to consumer acceptance. On average and with equivalence to gasoline a PHEV’s charge depleting battery system (from start to finish) gets around 105 mpg and well above even the most efficient petroleum based engines available. When mixed with ethanol, gasoline or biodeisel a PHEV owner can expect 42-45 mpg. As a result of these factors fuel economy is obviously greater with a PHEV than a conventional engine. While the economic advantages are obvious over the long run, up front, similar to HEVs, PHEV’s are much more expensive than conventional engine vehicles. This is again because of battery technology and limits to battery growth and range, however, a battery greatly reduces the amount of parts that need to be maintained, oiled and lubricated cutting down on yearly maintenance costs as well [6]

Incentives are also offered to prospective buyers of PHEV vehicles. The EIEA2008 grants a tax credit of $2500 for PHEVs with at least 4 kilowatt-hours of battery capacity (PHEV-10) while larger batteries earn an additional $417 per kilowatt-hour up to a maximum of $7500 (equivalent to a PHEV-40 battery). This credit applies to 2015 or until 250,000 eligible PHEV vehicles are sold[7]. Additionally ARRA2009, enacted in February 2009 modifies this tax credit to allow the minimum battery size earning additional credits is 5 Kilowatt-hours and the maximum allowable remains unchanged. The ARRA also extended from 250,000 sold to 200,000 vehicles sold per manufacturer. By incentivizing the sales of PHEV vehicles in the near term manufacturers will experience earlier economies of scale through greater sales, allowing battery systems technology to be developed while battery costs decrease, with the success of this plan manufacturers hope to offer more affordable PHEVs by 2030, when economies of scale have been fully realized.[8]

Even with the current and future benefits of PHEV vehicles some uncertainty resides in the possibility of PHEV vehicles staying cost competitive with conventional vehicles on the market. Especially vehicles that are relatively fuel efficient in their own right. Even in 2030 the additional cost of a PHEV is projected to be higher than total fuel savings unless gasoline prices are around 6$ per gallon. This poses a significant problem for PHEV vehicles, assuming that upfront costs limit the number of potential PHEV buyers, sales volumes may not be sufficient to induce the economies of scale assumption calculated by the EIA for 2030. With uncertainty surrounding lithium-ion batteries, HEV competition, diesels and grid-independent gasoline hybrid competition PHEVs are facing a somewhat uncertain future. While battery technology continues to progress with the HEV application and growing market PHEVs run the risk of remaining economically stifled until better batteries are available.[9] Supporting and cultivating a green image for PHEVs is essential to the viability of the market.

Our energy future depends largely on our ability to harness sustainable and diverse power through affordable means and existing infrastructure. Hybrid Electric and Plug-In Electric vehicles afford us the capability to transition from a heavily petroleum dependent transportation industry to a less dependent, increasingly diverse energy economy. As seen in both the EIA and IEA reports, creating a Hybrid economy is not only possible but also predictable. Largely a reinvention and combination of preexisting systems, Hybrids need no new technological inventions or infrastructure constructions making them less expensive than other alternative fuel technologies. While Hybrid and Electric vehicles are currently gaining shares of the market a swift and overwhelming shift is predicted to occur as dwindling oil reserves begin to drive oil prices up. Stimulating this economy today is the best way to ensure that the technology to become

totally energy independent is available tomorrow.

References

1.) Maples, John, and Nicolas Chase. "Economics of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles."(2009): 1. Rpt. in Issues in Focus. U.S. Energy Information Administration.Web. Mar.-Apr. 2011.hev.html>.

2.) IEA/IA HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicles." International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles. 3 Nov. 2010. Web. 16 May 2011. .

3.) Outlook for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles. Rep. International Energy Administration,1 Apr. 2009. Web. Apr.-May 2011. hev_outlook_2009.pdf>.

---

[1] IEA/IA HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicles." International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles. 3 Nov. 2010. Web. 16 May 2011. .

[2] Outlook for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles. Rep. International Energy Administration, 1 Apr. 2009. Web. Apr.-May 2011. .

[3] IEA/IA HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicles." International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles. 3 Nov. 2010. Web. 16 May 2011. .

[4] IEA/IA HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicles." International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles. 3 Nov. 2010. Web. 16 May 2011. .

[5] Maples, John, and Nicolas Chase. "Economics of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles." (2009): 1. Rpt. in Issues in Focus. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Web. Mar.-Apr. 2011. .

[6] Same as above

[7] Same as above

[8] Same as above

[9] Maples, John, and Nicolas Chase. "Economics of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles." (2009): 1. Rpt. in Issues in Focus. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Web. Mar.-Apr. 2011. .

ENV Economics
Presentation
P-Series:
• Renewable, non-petroleum, liquid fuels that can readily be substituted for gasoline
• 35% comes from liquid by products, known as “C5+” or pentanes plus
• Which are left over from natural gas processing
• Ethanol fermented from corn now comprises about 45%
• Remaining 20% is MeTHF an ether derived from lignocellulostic biomass: (paper sludge, wastepaper, food waste, wood waste and so on)
• MeTHF use over ethanol, higher yield, same production methods,
Addresses three problems: the need for non-petroleum energy sources, solid waste management and affordability
• Urban areas could control a large portion of generated trash simply by funneling it into production of this fuel
• Feedstock is not incinerated but chemically digested so there is no combustion with toxic air emissions
• To be used in FFV’s, which are continually gaining popularity and make up much of the AFV’s in the graph below





• Could give ethanol production a more energy productive pathway in terms of energy positive consumption or replace that market entirely with a more energy efficient alternative fuel source
• Currently cost is at $1.49 per gallon about 13 cents less than mid-grade gasoline
• 1999 used in Philly public sector sedan vehicles, implementation was successful overall
• 2000 University of Louisville was given a grant to begin construction on a large refinery
Overview: currently there is lack of demand for this fuel type and the lack of literature on the fuel type is reflective of this. However, given that all the ingredients for this fuel type can be found domestically, its ability to productively utilize and manage waste, its emission level being well below federal standards, the rising use of FFV’s in the American auto economy, its ability to co-opt ethanol production into its own production, and the DOE’s estimation that by 2005 effective implementation could have displaced roughly 1 billion gallons or 1 percent of gasoline annually; there remains an immense interest in this fuel type to help alleviate our dependence on foreign oil.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
H2 ECONOMICS: Measuring Cost
Energy Content
1 kg H2 ~ 1 gallon gasoline
Fuel Cost
$1/kg H2 ~ $1/gallon gasoline
Fuel Economy
H2 FCV ~ 1.5-2.5 x Gasoline Car
Fuel cost per mile ($/mi)
= Fuel cost ($/gallon)/Fuel economy (mi/gallon)
=> H2 can cost 1.5-2.5 X as much as gasoline and
give the same fuel cost per mile!
Existing technologies :
• PEM polymer electrolyte membrane 1350 hours in battery life or stack life in automotive use, some CO2 emissions when used with other fuels
• AFC or alkaline fuel cell, most mature in terms of technological advancements, however short battery life makes them less than commercially desirable
• DMFC direct methanol fuel cell- methanol has a higher energy density then hyrdrogen, uses methanol and steam to produce energy, however it is about 3-4 years of research behind other types
• PAFCS phosphoric acid fuel cells, 200 in operation today but mainly viable in terms of stationary use,
• Newest development URFC unitized regernertive fuel cell, produces electricity from hydrogen and oxygen emitting only hot water. Its light weight and could find use in vehicle technology although that has yet to be tested
• Others = MCFC molten carbonate fuel cell and SOFC solid oxide fuel cell– highest fuel efficiency, high temp design,



• The technology exists, however after the 100 billion dollar cut in 2010 for hydrogen research, the main hurdle currently is seemingly economic and transcends infrastructure development and fuel cell development………. please direct attention to the hand outs

Revised Outline

Jordan- Here is the summary you posted yesterday with my half attached at the end, let me know what you think, I can make alterations as needed.

1. Introduction- fuel types and reviewing the EIA link and perspectives on alternative fuel trends and types (JP)(http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/issues_trends/altfuelmarkets.html)

• P Series

• Hydrogen Fuel Cell

• Hybrid

• Hybrid Electric

2. P Series ( JP)

(http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/pdf/natural_gas_drilling/12_23_2009_final_assessment_report.pdf)///

(http://www.iags.org/pseries.htm)///

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-series_fuels) /// (http://www.anl.gov/PCS/acsfuel/preprint%20archive/Files/43_3_BOSTON_08-98_0373.pdf) //// (http://two-movies.com/full_movie/17/1558250/1/)//

• Extraction and implementation

• Potential Market Perspectives Plausibility

• The role of FFV’s

• Fracking and its environmental dangers

3. Hydrogen Fuel Cell (JP)

(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/hfct.html) /// (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/executive_summ.html)

(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/tech.html)///

(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/hydrogen.html)

(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/emissions.html)

(http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/08/hydrogen-car-is-here-but-wheres-the-hydrogen-economy/)

(http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=rip-hydrogen-economy-obama-cuts-hyd-2009-05-08)

• Perspectives Obama link

• EIA Executive Summary

• EIA2 implementation, extraction, implementation, technology, and all relevant (this was the most extensive section and much needs to be weeded out and organized before I make any final decisions about what to include in our paper

• EIA3 hydrogen effects on emissions, three scenarios of market penetration, full life cycle of fuel, current uses,

• EIA 4 economic limitations and hurdles, infrastructure necessities and perspectives on its future use

• Conclusion with Scientific America Link

4. Hybrid(PB)

-References and Sources

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/aeo_2009analysispapers/ephev.html

http://energytech.pnnl.gov/publications/pdf/PHEV_Economic_Analysis_Part2_Final.pdf

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_3.pdf

http://www.iea.org/impagr/cip/pdf/HEVAwardIssue3706.pdf

http://www.iea.org/papers/2010/global_market_transformation.pdf

http://www.iea.org/papers/2010/rural_elect.pdf

-Points Concerning Hybrid Alternatives

-History of hybrid technology, current infrastructure and applications in transportation

-Projected gasoline savings, impact on oil economy

-Short-term environmental outlooks v. Long-term economic and environmental benefits

-Sales trends, EIA projected residential and commercial trends, public transportation

-Viability as intermediate transportation alternative, economically

-Impacts on energy and electricity market

-Results of shifting to an electric dominated transportation industry

-Vehicle Examples-Hybrid

Gasoline Electric, Diesel Electric Hybrid

Micro Hybrid, gasoline engine switched off when idling

5. Electric Plug-In(PB)

-References and Sources

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/aeo_2009analysispapers/ephev.html

http://energytech.pnnl.gov/publications/pdf/PHEV_Economic_Analysis_Part2_Final.pdf

http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1931

http://www.iea.org/impagr/cip/pdf/HEVAwardIssue3706.pdf

http://www.iea.org/papers/2010/global_market_transformation.pdf

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/transport2009SUM.pdf

http://www.iea.org/papers/2009/EV_PHEV_Roadmap.pdf

http://www.iea.org/papers/2010/global_market_transformation.pdf

http://www.iea.org/papers/2010/load_shifting.pdf

-Points concerning Electric Plug-In

-Viability and reality

-Battery life in relation to economic cost

-Shifting and expanding electric grid/impacts on electric generation

-Electric car environmental impacts

-Infrastructural demands and limitation

-Limitations of “plug-in” stations

-Vehicle Examples- Plug-In

Plug-in hybrid with electric range of 10 miles

Plug-in Hybrid with electric range of 40 miles

“All electric” vehicles

6. Concluding thoughts: on what the future holds in terms of fuels, and reflections on the various issues of alternative fuel developments (PB)

-Global Energy outlooks and impacts of clean fuels on global markets

http://www.iea.org/papers/2010/global_market_transformation.pdf

*Would you like to possibly draft separate conclusion and introduction paragraphs for our respective fuel alternatives, possibly combining them in the final project or separating the report into 2 sections with their own conclusions and introductions?

ENV ECO FINAL PAPER OUTLINE

Env Eco Outline

1. Introduction- fuel types and reviewing the EIA link and perspectives on alternative fuel trends and types (JP)(http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/issues_trends/altfuelmarkets.html)
• P Series
• Hydrogen Fuel Cell
• Hybrid
• Hybrid Electric
2. P Series ( JP)
(http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/pdf/natural_gas_drilling/12_23_2009_final_assessment_report.pdf)///
(http://www.iags.org/pseries.htm)///
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-series_fuels) /// (http://www.anl.gov/PCS/acsfuel/preprint%20archive/Files/43_3_BOSTON_08-98_0373.pdf) //// (http://two-movies.com/full_movie/17/1558250/1/)//
• Extraction and implementation
• Potential Market Perspectives Plausibility
• The role of FFV’s
• Fracking and its environmental dangers
3. Hydrogen Fuel Cell (JP)
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/hfct.html) /// (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/executive_summ.html)
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/tech.html)///
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/hydrogen.html)
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hydro/emissions.html)
(http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/08/hydrogen-car-is-here-but-wheres-the-hydrogen-economy/)
(http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=rip-hydrogen-economy-obama-cuts-hyd-2009-05-08)
• Perspectives Obama link
• EIA Executive Summary
• EIA2 implementation, extraction, implementation, technology, and all relevant (this was the most extensive section and much needs to be weeded out and organized before I make any final decisions about what to include in our paper
• EIA3 hydrogen effects on emissions, three scenarios of market penetration, full life cycle of fuel, current uses,
• EIA 4 economic limitations and hurdles, infrastructure necessities and perspectives on its future use
• Conclusion with Scientific America Link



4. Hybrid(PB)
5. Hybrid/Electric(PB)

6. Concluding thoughts on what the future holds in terms of fuels, and reflections on the various issues of alternative fuel developments (PB)

EIA 4

The following are my notes from the EIA 4th report

2030 is a potentially realistic projection for cost effective light duty FCV’s, however the next twenty five or so years requires extensive investment measures.

Long-term state and federal policies are required

High capital costs of PEM fuel cell is one challenge

Other challenges include: developing on board hydrogen storage systems, integrating the PEM fuel cell into an LDV motor and building an effective and economical dispensing network

There is a divide in market investing and federal funds in general as some funding is going towards hydrogen fuel cell technologies while others are preoccupied with developing and improving standard technologies in order to comply with the 2020 CAFÉ standards of 35 miles per gallon

Successful R&D and commercialization of an advanced battery technology that achieves acceptable safety, performance, durability, and costs could support all three advanced automotive technologies—for all-electric PHEVs, all-electric FCVs, and hybrid FCVs.

According to EERE,⁸⁰ the following hydrogen-related goals must be achieved if FCVs are to attain large-scale dominance in the LDV market:

• The delivered, untaxed, cost of hydrogen, including production, transportation, and distribution, must decline to between $2 and $3 per gallon gasoline equivalent, or approximately $2 to $3 per kilogram of hydrogen, because 1 kilogram of hydrogen contains about the same energy as a gallon of gasoline, and $1 per kilogram is about $8.77 per million Btu,⁸¹ if crude oil prices are sustained at about $90 per barrel in real 2006 dollars. Higher crude oil prices would allow higher-cost hydrogen to pass the economic test.

• Federal and State policies must be instituted to facilitate the construction of all phases of a hydrogen production, transmission, distribution, and dispensing infrastructure. The policies may have to include financial incentives and guarantees that currently are unspecified, as well as safety regulations for the transportation of hydrogen through tunnels and on bridges.

• Fuel cell and vehicle manufacturers must be convinced that the Federal and State governments will provide a stable and supportive set of policies that encourage their investments in hydrogen FCVs for at least 10 years, according to an ORNL report.⁸²

• Hydrogen storage costs for fuel cells must fall to about $2 per kilowatt from their currently estimated price of about $8 per kilowatt for the 5,000 psi system.⁸³

• The total cost of all the fuel cell components, including fuel stacks, catalyst, and balance of system, must fall to $30 per kilowatt,⁸⁴ as compared with current cost estimates of $3,625 to $4,500 per kilowatt for production in small numbers.

• Ideally, the first FCV markets must be developed in areas with high population densities that already have excess capacity at hydrogen production facilities, in order to encourage early adoption, provide consumer familiarity, and accelerate fuel cell cost reductions based on learning by the automobile manufactures.

Each of these major goals and associated challenges are discussed below. Additional technical and economic feasibility items may also require resolutio

Hydrogen Production, Hyrdrogen Sytorage, Hydrogen Infastrucure

Development and Deployment of a HYRDO infrastructure requires both long term developments of building an extensive distribution network via pipelines similar ot the natural gas pipelines already in existence, and developing local centralized facilites that use natural gas as feedstock

Neither will be accomplished based on investor interest alone and require extensive federal incentives

Furthermore the costs of the various storage and transmission can vary greatly and therefore as the hydrogen economy develops these challenges of distribution will come down to cost effectiveness, practicality, and safety

Currently it has been beneficial to target highly populated areas, expand on existing infrastructures and facilities near by for hydrogen production and consequently provide the area with the alternative

As mentioned before, LDV costs need to drop significantly before any large-scale market penetration

This will require PEM fuel cell costs to reduce to at least 30$ per kilowatt

Outline Hybrid/Plug-In Electric

Hybrid/Plug-In Electric Alternatives Outline Thus Far--

Here is a brief outline of what I plan to look at regarding the current climate surrounding Hybrid and Plug-In Electric Vehicles. Currently I am still narrowing down specific resources and references to begin synthesizing some kind of report, it seems there is a wealth of writing out there that deals with environmental impacts but not so much with the economic. I will definitely end up using the EIA website (here) and (here) as a resource as I gather references.

Important Points--

-PHEV’s utilize a combination of internal combustion engine and battery power

-Projected lifetime savings on gas, personal as well as global scales

-Short-term environmental outlooks –vs- long-term goals, reduction in oil dependency

-Sales trends in hybrid vehicles compared to traditional and electric vehicles, EIA projected trends in residential and commercial sectors. Public transportation options and growth concerns.

-Unconventional fuel vehicles account for 50% of the market, projected growth rates.

Looking at

Four types of vehicles expected to be available for sale by 2035

-Gasoline Electric, Diesel Electric Hybrid

-Plug in Hybrid with electric range of 10 miles

-Plug in Hybrid with electric range of 40 miles

-Micro Hybrid, which in which the gasoline engine is switched off only when idling

Increased electricity demand in the transportation sector will also have noticeable effects on electricity availability and the over all market. The EIA predicts a 30% increase in demand by the year 2035. From 3,873 billion kilowatt-hours in 2008 to 5,021 billion kilowatt-hours in 2035. I will look at what kind of effects this will have on residential electricity demand, its relation to disposable income and population shifts and growth. Essentially, shifting to an electric dominated transportation industry will have its own unique set of economic and environmental repercussions.

The EIA also has several good resources for predicting trends in electricity growth in relation to penetration of the market by hybrid electric vehicles as well as strictly plug-in electric vehicles. In the High Economic Growth case electricity prices rise to 10.9 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2035, while in the Low Growth model they rise to only 9.3. This also leads to interesting questions about electricity generation, nuclear power and natural gas. While hybrid electric vehicles have captured the market currently, will they be able to keep it as electricity becomes a more controversial issue?

Right now there is a lot of information floating around that I need to organize. I hope this brief outline is a step in the right direction for now.

EIA 3

The notes for the EIA hydrogen third report are below and you can access the link accordingly


I have one more report to analyze hopefully I can get that done and posted before class tomorrow, otherwise that about sums up stuff on my end and it is now time to arrange a brief meeting where we discuss how we are going to present the information and deadlines all that jazz

Chapter 3 provides quantitative estimates of energy and CO2 emission impacts of FCVs, based on different market penetration scenarios, hydrogen production technologies (including the manner in which they are deployed from distributed to centralized production), and hydrogen vehicle efficiency (fuel economy). The results are compared with results for an alternative technology, PHEVs. The analysis provides some observations and insights into the potential impacts of the large-scale introduction of hydrogen vehicles.

· Emission projections are subject to change due to various scenarios considered in this report

· However, the projections suppose three scenarios of change that could took place as follows

· One- considered least aggressive market strategy with development not really beginning until 2015 and increases slowly for a significant period and then accompanied by state and federal incentives increases with rapid technology and consequently infrastructure change with roughly 45% of energy intensive markets and fuels adapted by 2045

· Two- more aggressive, charting a sales path of faster consumption of these products and consequently a faster realization of their benefits to the environment, characterized by a steady increase at first and then a more rapid one until 2050 when 90% of all cars sold are FCV’s

· Three- most aggressive strategy, rapidly developed, assumes all costs goals are met in infrastructure is developed in Tandem, which after considerable advancements and economic investments spikes upward after 2024 and has reached a peak of almost 100% FCV sales by 2038

· In order to have a more comprehensive projection the study also includes a number of sceanrios in which the fuel finds it way into the economy

· Distributed natural gas SMR, centralized natural gas SMR, centralized coal gasificaton with CCS, centralized biomass gasification, and centralized nuclear electrolysis HTE of water- the pathways listed are only meant to provide prospective gauges for different emission levels that could result from the different choices and are not necessarily reflective of what will be or is the most economically effective and therefore are worth mentioning and referencing the accompanying charts but are not crucial to our analysis.

· SLOW STOCK TURNOVER- benefits of market penetration will be not be fully realized until a decade after significant market penetration and this lapse between periods poses the risky transition period for investors and consumers from a gasoline centric market to a hydrogen fueled market and this period demonstrates the greatest challenge to integration.

· The emissions do not include the CO2 emissions associated with the full life cycle of the fuel and therefore are considered in terms of direct energy use scenarios given that projections about the technology needed to bring us the fuel cannot with any accuracy be predicted.

· The study then explores the different scenarios in context to LDV direct energy use impacts and also the comparative case for a point of reference of the impacts of plug in hybrid. See accompanying graphs and charts in the link for a more colorful representation

·

·

·

· The scenarios, as one might expect produced hugely different results in terms of fuel emissions and therefore the key findings of this analysis are summed up as follows

· It is highly unlikely given the technological and infrastructure challenges that hydrogen FCV will have a significant impact on LDV energy use and CO2 emissions by 2030

· However depending on market penetration and improvements in the fuel economy by 2050, the reduction of petroleum demand could range anywhere from 37.1 % - 84.1%

· Also depending on the means of production, the full fuel cycle reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 could be as high as 63.8% to merely 2.0% in the various scenarios

· The fuel economy of FCVs and the electricity generation mix are the key determinants of relative emissions and outcomes

·